Astrophys. Space Sci. Trans., 3, 1-13, 2007
www.astrophys-space-sci-trans.net/3/1/2007/
doi:10.5194/astra-3-1-2007
© Author(s) 2007. This work is licensed under the
Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.5 License.
 
30 Jul 2007
Predicting the future from observable sequences of events in astrophysics I. Maximum Likelihood Estimation for a fixed number of parameters
C. Röken and I. Lerche
Institut für Theoretische Physik, Lehrstuhl IV: Weltraum und Astrophysik, Ruhr-Universität-Bochum, 44780 Bochum, Germany

Abstract. Using analytical and numerical methods, estimates are given of future predictions in astrophysics that can be gathered from a sequence of observed events, for example for γ-ray bursts. Some general probability considerations are provided and then a maximum likelihood estimation, together with an approximation for the large number limit of possible events. Illustrations are given of the numerical maximum likelihood estimation programs in the situations of both a large number and a finite number of events. The effects of data uncertainty are also considered. Numerical calculations and comparisons with theoretical expectations are presented too.

Citation: Röken, C. and Lerche, I.: Predicting the future from observable sequences of events in astrophysics I. Maximum Likelihood Estimation for a fixed number of parameters, Astrophys. Space Sci. Trans., 3, 1-13, doi:10.5194/astra-3-1-2007, 2007.
 
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